Labour Supply, Remittances and the New Flat Tax in Albania

In this paper we use Living Standard Measurement Survey (2005) to analyze the effects of remittances on the labor participation decisions of the Albanian non-migrants. We apply a micro-econometric two-sector labour supply model where the individuals remaining in Albania are allowed to choose among several labour market alternatives (non-employment, part time, full time and extra-time) together with the choice of being selfemployed or wage workers. The estimated coefficients of the utility function indicate a positive effect in average of the remittances’ receipt on the preferences for leisure for both males and females. However, using the estimated coefficients of the utility function to simulate the effect of a percentage increase in remittances on hours worked, we find that non-migrant substitute income for leisure only in case they are wage workers while a labour incentive effect is observed for the self-employed. The flat tax would make labour behaviour of individuals in Albania more neutral versus remittances due to their shift in budget constraint especially in case of self employed.Migration, remittances, Labor supply, discrete choice models, inequality, poverty

The Effects of Flat Tax on Inequality and Informal Employment: The Case of Albania

In this study we perform the first econometric attempt to estimate the trade-off between equity and efficiency of tax systems counting for the tax evasion option in a developing country such as Albania. Using the Albanian Living Srandard Measurement Survey (2005, 2008) we estimate a micro-econometric model of labour supply and incorporate the option of participation in regular and irregular labour markets. Swapping the tax rules of 2005 with 2008, we find that the flat tax has not contributed in the reduction of labour informality but rather the increases in regular wages have played an important role in convincing the individuals to move to regular market. Furthermore, we find that controls and audits are more efficient than fines in inducing people to switch from the informal to formal labour market. A similar effect is achieved also when “honest” individuals are endowed with a universal benefit. In distributional terms, calculations of Gini inequality index and Sen’s welfare index demonstrate that the only scenario that would improve welfare index is a progressive tax rule as before 2007. Finally, these results suggest that a kind of progressivity should be reinserted to the taxation system without affecting the attractiveness of the simplicity exercised by the flat tax.

Reflection on Microeconomic Adjustment Hazard Approach

This paper studies the way the adjustment process takes place in labor demand when it is expressed as a Cox proportional hazard model. I use a simulated firm-level panel data based on a threshold model with periods of high and low frequency of employment fluctuations, which is consistent with the infrequent way the adjustment process takes place according to the new theories of adjustment. I model the probability that a firm adjusts its employment level during a time-period as a Cox proportional hazard function dependent on the deviation of its actual employment value variable from its target. I show that the aggregate employment change, based on a high proportion of firms experiencing large employment fluctuations, could be very well represented by the Cox proportional hazard and also could be very well approximated by the empirical mean of the product of the hazard function and the deviations. On the other hand, I show that the aggregate employment change based on a very low proportion of firms facing large employment adjustment can be well represented by a quadratic (nonlinear) adjustment hazard. Finally, I try to conclude that in order to construct a measure of deviation from the target level (which is the state variable of the model) the regression of the employment fluctuation on the wage fluctuation could be more helpful than the regression of the employment fluctuation on the hours fluctuation.

Interrelationships Between Labor and Capital Adjustment Decisions

This paper intends to provide empirical evidence on the interrelationship between employment and capital adjustment decisions. A fixed-effect logit model is employed to estimate this interrelationship using a data set of large Italian firms. Whereas some firms prefer to hire substantially in the same time the investments spike occurs, the others find profitable to anticipate the investments episodes as well. Also, the augmented adjustment-cost function for employment and capital is extended to express the inaction range of employment (capital) adjustment in terms of the inactions range of capital (employment) adjustment and validate the use of a discrete choice modelling thereafter. Investment process occurs more smoothly than employment adjustment process, while hiring process is less smooth that firing process. Convex components seem to be important in the adjustment process of capital. Firms investing in R&D products, MNEs and those older than 25 years prefer to anticipate the investment spikes by hiring one year in advance in addition to the simultaneous hiring. These firms possess a plant-specific asset that allow them to use a higher technology level than the other firms. In turn, this higher technology level requires more skilled labor and thus workers to be trained and used efficiently in their organizational structure. Therefore, these firms will take employment decisions under a longer time horizon and will be inclined to plan carefully their investment decisions and hiring (expansion) strategies on a longer time period. Likewise, it may indicate that they possess superior management expertise that allows them to predict market fluctuations and plan the expansion and investment strategies in advance. Business cycle trend seems correlated with the simultaneous dynamics of factor demands such as it gets stronger in upturns and weaker in downturns.Interrelationship, investment, adjustment, labor

Alternative Basic Income Mechanisms: An Evaluation Exercise with a Microeconometric Model

We develop and estimate a microeconometric model of household labour supply in four European countries representative of different economies and welfare policy regimes: Denmark, Italy, Portugal and the United Kingdom. We then simulate, under the constraint of constant total net tax revenue (fiscal neutrality), the effects of various hypothetical tax-transfer reforms which include alternative versions of a Basic Income policy: Guaranteed Minimum Income, Work Fare, Participation Basic Income and Universal Basic Income. We produce indexes and criteria according to which the reforms can be ranked and compared to the current tax-transfer systems. The exercise can be considered as one of empirical optimal taxation, where the optimization problem is solved computationally rather than analytically. It turns out that many versions of the Basic Income policies would be superior to the current system. The most successful policies are those involving non means-tested versions of basic income (Universal or Participation Basic Income) and adopting progressive tax-rules. If – besides the fiscal neutrality constraint – also other constraints are considered, such as the implied top marginal top tax rate or the effect on female labour supply, the picture changes: unconditional policies remain optimal and feasible in Denmark and the UK; instead in Italy and Portugal universal policies appear to be too costly in terms of implied top marginal tax rates and in terms of adverse effects on female participation, and conditional policies such as Work-Fare, emerge as more desirable.tax reforms, models of labour supply, universal basic income, participation basic income, work fare, minimum guaranteed income, welfare evaluation, optimal taxation

Public-private wage differences in the Western Balkan countries

This paper investigates wage differences between the public and private sectors in the Western Balkan countries. As currently there are no micro data sets that are fully comparable across countries, we provide evidence based on the available macro-level data and results from recent micro-level research which typically focus on the individual countries. We find that in all Western Balkan countries the average wages in the public sector are higher than the wages in the private sector, but also that the high-skilled workers work more frequently in the public sector, therefore partially or fully "justifying" the wage differences. Around the begining of 2010s, wage differences were lower in Montenegro, Albania and Kosovo, where when adjusted for the differences in workers characteristics they become insignificant. The differences were more promenent in Serbia, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the differences in characteristic cannot explain the gap fully, and where the public sector wage premium is positive and significant. However, public private wage differences are still very volatile and under the impact of countries' political decisions. The differences in the size of the premium is discussed in the context of previously estblished correlates: differences in the total public sector size and private sector job security, as well as different size of the public sector wage premium at the different parts of the wage distribution. As public private wage gaps have important micro and macro level implications, their trends and mechanisms should be closely monitored and investigated in future research

Progressive Tax Reforms in Flat Tax Countries

The adoption of flat tax systems in Central and Eastern European countries have often been supported by arguments of simplicity, higher compliance and lower distortionary effects. However, since income inequality is high in these countries, the question of introducing some progressivity has come to the fore in both policy and academic circles. In this paper, we combine microsimulation and macro models to analyze the effects of moving from a flat to a progressive tax system and we find that a reduction in income inequality can be achieved with positive, albeit negligible, employment and growth impact

Projecting the net fiscal impact of immigration in the EU

This report provides an analysis of the fiscal impact of migration in the European Union in the past and the future. It highlights that currently natives generally show a higher net fiscal contribution than extra-EU migrants and a similar contribution to intra-EU migrants. However, due to ageing of the native population, this relationship is bound to reverse in the near future. The report calculates that by 2035 an average extra-EU migrant would be a net beneficiary of public transfers, but to a lesser extent than the average native would, while intra-EU mobile citizens would continue being net contributors. The report also analyses six possible policy scenarios and their implications for the fiscal contributions of extra-EU migrants. These simulations highlight how acting on the size of the flows of new migrants without removing the obstacles to their full labour market integration would yield small fiscal benefits for the hosting country. Labour market policies targeted at increasing labour participation of migrants could generate large fiscal gains. To evaluate the static net fiscal impact of migration based on micro-data the analysis uses EUROMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union enriched with data on in-kind benefits. This is based on OECD data for apportioning the cost of education social housing and health care provision. For projecting the long-run fiscal effect of migration, the simulations use CEPAM-Mic, a dynamic microsimulation projection model.JRC.E.6-Demography, Migration and Governanc